Hey @eskimo, we're currently facing the same issue. We're planing to turn on federation for Managed Apple IDs in October and planing to only have Managed Apple IDs in our developer programs.
I think the documentation even changed to be even more drastic:
"Important: Command-line services—like notarization—that use app-specific passwords won’t work with Managed Apple IDs."
https://support.apple.com/de-de/guide/apple-business-essentials/axm6603d9206/web
And in addition to that, we're mainly using the Apple Developer Enterprise Program, which means we don't even have the option to use an App Store Connect API Key, as these are unavailable to these accounts (for some reason...)
Do you have any idea how we could use the notarytool in the future? Adding a private Apple ID to our accounts won't be an option from security perspective.
Feedback ID: FB12796767
Thanks for your help!