This seems to be fixed now...App Store is no longer saying my MBP is "not compatible" and I can download Xcode from the App Store again.
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Yup...there's an earlier thread below of people reporting this issue.
Same problem.
MBP M2 Max on Sonoma 14.2 and Xcode 15.1.
Thinks my Mac is not a compatible device, sigh....
My workaround: I downloaded the Xcode .xip from developer.apple.com and installed manually...seemingly fine. But the AppStore install/upgrade path is definitely broken.