On iOS 18, if I donate the event a few more times the rule is triggered eventually, so the rules are just not reliable, not totally broken.
Reported as FB16040974.
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Tip.statusUpdates does fire as expected on iOS 17, so this is probably a regression in iOS 18.
Given the usual lack of feedback from Apple on radars I don't have high hopes, but I have submitted a radar anyway: FB16022075