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Reply to iPhone is busy: Making Apple Watch ready for development
I've had the same problem. What fixed it for me is putting my watch into Airplane mode, but leaving the bluetooth enabled. It was then on the "Preparing..." step for a LONG time, but eventually completed successfully. I'm guessing that it's trying to use WiFi if available and must be timing out. NOTE: I've used this same trick to get my Apple Watch 3 to update to the last couple of OS updates too.
Mar ’22