How to calculate 'Active paid subscriptions' using subscription event data

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Created Jan ’23

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As per the display in "App Store Connect > Sales and Trends > Subscriptions > Summary", I'm wanting to understand how to calculate the 'Active paid subscriptions' figure for a particular period using only the subscription event data. This is for further analysis and calculation outside of App Store Connect.

For example, if at the start of April I have 500 active paid subscriptions, then at the end of April I have 550 active paid subscriptions, what are the calculation of Subscription events that would make up this figure?

I'd presume the formula would be:

End of period subscriptions = start of period subscriptions + activations (includes trials) + conversions to standard price + reactivations - refunds - trial only activations - cancellations

However when I compare the above calculation against what is reported by 'Active paid subscriptions' at the start and end of a period in App Store Connect it is not the same.

What is the calculation of events across a period that determines the current 'Active paid subscriptions' figure?

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Answer 1

alincoln OP

May ’23

Curious if you received an answer here or had any insight! I'm attempting to do the same exercise using similar logic.

End of period active paid subscriptions = start of period active paid subscriptions + new paid subscriptions - churned paid subscriptions

where

new paid subscriptions = trial conversions to paid + direct purchases (standard price or a paid introductory offer) + reactivations into standard price
churned paid subscriptions = cancellations, refunds, entries into billing retry, entries into billing grace period.

My variance against actuals is anywhere from 1 - 10% with this logic, and I am having trouble isolating what part(s) of my equation might be incorrect.

Any guidance here is appreciated!

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