Implications of an expired distribution certificate

I received an email saying this:

Your iOS Distribution Certificate will no longer be valid in 30 days. To generate a new certificate, sign in and visit Certificates, Identifiers & Profiles.

If I don't correct that situation, what will be the consequences for my apps' users? The Apple documentation is vague on this, because they seem to automatically assume that I plan to comply and renew the cert. However I don't own a Mac at present, nor an iOS device. My apps are monetarily free, so no financial incentive exists to buy either. If I don't renew the distribution cert again (maybe by borrowing a Mac), will my apps' existing users be adversely affected? FWIW, my apps don't support iCloud in any way. I would also note that the "Certificates, Identifiers & Profiles" section isn't visible anywhere; I'm using Firefox.

The distribution certificate is only used in the act of uploading the app to the App Store. Apple discard the signature which was used in the upload process and, when distributing to user devices, sign the app themselves with their own App Store certificate. Thus user devices only need to understand one, Apple certificate.

That is the technical side.

However, on the commercial side it is conceivable that “did not renew a certificate” could induce Apple to think “inactive developer”. I think this is unlikely, given the sophistication of internal communication between departments that would be required. But only Apple can really answer this. If somebody from Apple doesn’t respond to this thread, you might try the Contact Us link in the App Store Connect page.

Implications of an expired distribution certificate
 
 
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