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Xcode 15.3 device connection issues
I've filed FB13683931 with all my logs.
As discussed in that Feedback, my problem seems simply to be that Xcode is "sticky" with its selection of interface.
If Xcode sees my iPad over WiFi, first (the common case since WiFi is always on but cable is not always connected) it will establish debugging over WiFi. It will continue to use WiFi for debugging even if USB has subsequently connected and the devices list is no longer showing the WiFi "globe" icon. It never seems to switch unless forced.
As a workaround for this problem, I can disable WiFi, start debugging (forcing Xcode onto USB) and subsequently re-enable WiFi. Due to the apparently sticky nature, Xcode will stay on USB for some time (when my computer next goes to sleep, all bets are off).
As a followup, I should note: it's definitely not a network availability or routing issue. I can ping the iPad over the USB connection. And Xcode itself is discovering the USB connection (as indicated by it removing the "globe" icon). The problem is that Xcode isn't moving debugging over to USB unless forced.