Curious if you received an answer here or had any insight! I'm attempting to do the same exercise using similar logic. End of period active paid subscriptions = start of period active paid subscriptions + new paid subscriptions - churned paid subscriptions where new paid subscriptions = trial conversions to paid + direct purchases (standard price or a paid introductory offer) + reactivations into standard price churned paid subscriptions = cancellations, refunds, entries into billing retry, entries into billing grace period. My variance against actuals is anywhere from 1 - 10% with this logic, and I am having trouble isolating what part(s) of my equation might be incorrect. Any guidance here is appreciated!