Same issue. I thought it was because I am a newbie to Apple development. I thought, since I could log on to my apple dev account that it must be a problem with certificates, but, this post indicates it is an underlying problem.

I'm having a similar problem, except that I started with xcode 16.1. (new to mobile dev as of October), so my app has never worked. I follow the instructions to create certs, define devices, define app ids, and create a profile. But after downloading the profile and double clicking it I get an error message that it could not be installed. The verbiage suggests the the device in not included in the profile, but it is. The same thing happens regardless of which device I am retrying to install to. Apple support has been radio silent.